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What
is the CLIMPACTS Programme?
The
CLIMPACTS System
Advantages
of an Integrated Model
What
is the CLIMPACTS Programme?
The CLIMPACTS programme is funded by the New Zealand Foundation for Research, Science and
Technology (FRST). Since the programme's beginning in 1993, it has been implemented by an interdisciplinary, multi-skilled research team,
led by the International Global Change Institute (IGCI), involving five Crown Research Institutes (CRIs) and two Universities.
The broad goal of the CLIMPACTS programme is to enhance the understanding of the sensitivity of New Zealand's environment
and resources to climate variability and change. Natural variations in New Zealand's climate affect primary production systems, amongst
other sectors, with the potential for large disruptions. On longer time-scales, changes in New Zealand's climate may exacerbate
many of these problems. Within this context there is a need (nationally and regionally) to understand better the effects of such variations
and changes as a basis for sustainable resource management. Internationally (e.g. under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC) there is
a responsibility to communicate our understanding of the possible effects of anthropogenic climate change in New Zealand and to use that experience in
aiding others, especially in developing countries.
Based on the above rationale, the research has three broad purposes:
-
To enhance the means of determining the environmental effects of climate change and variability;
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To improve the basis for decision-making and sustainable management in avoiding adverse consequences of such changes;
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To build a base of multi-skilled expertise in New Zealand for better understanding climate-environment relationships.
The unifying aim of the programme has been the development
of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the CLIMPACTS system, with capacity
for conducting analyses of the sensitivity of New Zealand's managed environments to climate
variability and change over time and space.
The CLIMPACTS
System
The CLIMPACTS system is an integrated computer-based
model developed to examine the sensitivity of New Zealand's climate,
agricultural and horticultural sectors to climate change and variability.
It has the flexibility to allow the user to generate a vast number of climate
change scenarios and thus ask a range of "what if" questions about the
climate sensitivity of selected sectors.
At the top end of the system is a MAGICC (Model
for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change), a simple global
climate model used to provide time-dependent projections of global temperature
change from 1990 to 2100, for any greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios.
The global temperature changes from MAGICC are
used to scale patterns of climate change for New Zealand, derived from more
complex general circulation models (GCM's). The scaled patterns of climate
change are then used to perturb the reference (1951-80) climate for New Zealand,
to give scenarios of future climate up to 2100.
This "scenario generator" is linked to
a range of crop models, as well as an extreme event analysis tool. It is
thus possible, using the CLIMPACTS system, to ask a wide range of
policy-relevant questions, in particular relating to changes in areas of
suitability and changes in climate-related risk.
Advantages
of an Integrated Model
The CLIMPACTS system has many advantages including:
- The system is integrated, linking together a
number of analytical tools and models, allowing a range of assessments of
climate variability and change to be made;
- The system can be easily updated as new
information becomes available and the accuracy of the models improve;
- The system is flexible, allowing the user to
examine the effects for a range of climate change scenarios;
- The outputs for a specified scenario are
generated quickly, and thus comprehensive analyses are possible in a short
space of time;
- The system allows both spatial and temporal
analyses to be conducted;
- The multi-scale nature of the system means an
analysis can be made separately on a national, regional, or site specific
basis, or an integrated manner across these scales;
- Various types of analyses can be undertaken
including sensitivity analysis, an examination of uncertainties, extreme
event analysis, or a combination of the above;
- The system can be uses as a training tool or
as an instructional tool to assist with policy and plan formulation.
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