It may be in order for one to assume that conflicts in Africa have a strong link to levels of urbanisation on the continent. A generalised argument may be that countries that have the majority of their populations relying on land for sustenance are more likely to engage in civil war, whereas those that are highly urbanised tend not to fight each other over resources such as land. For example, heavy dependence on land under conditions of rapid population growth can lead to conflicts such as those experienced in Rwanda in 1994, or can exacerbate conditions leading to civil war.

The recently published UN-Habitat’s report ‘‘State of African Cities 2008’’ underscores the above assumption by stating that Eastern Africa — the world’s least urbanised region — suffers from a dangerous combination of land scarcity and unsustainable population growth rates that have led to the politicisation of rural land and resulted in ethnic tensions, such as those witnessed in Kenya in January 2008.

the Report indicates that the Eastern Africa region (comprising Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion, Rwanda, the Seychelles, Somalia, Uganda and Tanzania) has less than a quarter of its total population living in urban areas, compared to more than 50 per cent in Northern Africa, 47 per cent in Southern Africa and 44 per cent in Western Africa.

Although the Eastern Africa region is rapidly urbanising, with an average annual urban growth rate of about 4 per cent, urbanisation is not driven by economic growth, but by factors such as high fertility rates and rural-urban migration. The report describes this urbanisation as “a poverty-driven economic survival strategy”, with most countries suffering from a phenomenon known as “over-urbanisation” where urban population growth outstrips urban economic growth.

In the past and to a greater extent today, many political leaders in Africa believe that keeping rural migrants in villages will solve this problem, but in Eastern Africa this is hardly an option worth considering as 65 per cent of the region’s land is classified as semi-arid, which not only means that more people are concentrated in increasingly scarce arable land, but that those who reside in land that is not very productive are vulnerable to droughts and famines. 

The conditions in cities are not any better.  For instance, statistics reveal that in 2004, only 32 per cent of urban residents in the region were connected to their national electricity grids. Even in cases where electricity is available, it remains unaffordable for the majority. Residents of Nairobi will be shocked to learn that less than 2 per cent of the city’s population used electricity for cooking in the year 2003, with the majority (68 per cent) relying on kerosene. The situation may not have improved, at worst it may have worsened. Situation in other cities such as Kigali and Kampala is even more grim, as in these cities more than two-thirds of their population still cook with charcoal.

Majority of urban residents in the region’s cities suffer deprivations such as lack of access to sanitation and overcrowding, which have a negative impact on health indicators, with slum-dwellers suffering more from preventable illnesses than non-slum dwellers.

Slums are a common feature in the region’s largest cities, with some, such as Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam, having more that 60 per cent of their respective populations living in slum conditions.

Water supply in many of the cities is irregular and most urban populations do not enjoy the benefits of connection to a sewerage system. In Addis Ababa, for instance, only 2 per cent of the residents are connected to a main sewer line.

One should however be cautious about linking urban growth to slum incidence or urban poverty.  The report on the  “State of African Cities 2008’’ indicates that in Eastern Africa urban poverty is not primarily a function of urban expansion or a sign of the failure of urban economies. It relates to systemic institutional failures at the national levels that perpetuate social exclusion and inequalities. These failures are aggravated by lack of political will, poor planning, and lack of investment in public infrastructure.  

The grim picture notwithstanding, it is worthy to note that urbanisation can lead to peace and prosperity. This can happen if it is accompanied by economic growth and investment in public infrastructure and services that benefit the majority and that provide incentives for investments that increase opportunities for employment. Urban growth without investment in infrastructure creates cities that are not just unliveable, but unsustainable.

It goes without saying that, the Eastern African governments need to do a lot more to make cities in the region globally competitive. The State of African Cities 2008 report encourages governments in the region to view cities as engines of regional, national and local growth by investing in social and physical infrastructure (particularly in medium-sized and small cities). Cities that have well-developed infrastructure promote economic growth by increasing urban-based employment opportunities and reducing dependence on land, which remains a potential source of conflict in the region.

The article was derived from Rasna Warah commentaries published on November 30 2008 in ‘The Daily Nation’